Japan and the English Olympic Dream pt. 2
This is the second piece of a series I began in 2017 about how the Tokyo Olympics were meant to catapult Japan’s English proficiency into the 21st century… but somehow didn’t. You may also want to read part 1, part 3, and part 4.
Around this time last year I wrote a post about the state of English in Japan. In the post, I mentioned that despite the Olympic Dream of opening up Japan to the rest of the world and having everyone speak English, the data seemed to show that a) the level of English is actually going down, and b) the number of Japanese learners is going up. So, one year later, here are some updates and observations.
Japan’s level of English is still going down.
Last time I used the EF English Prociency Index to show that the while the level of English in Japan wasn’t so great to begin with, it actually got worse. However, that was just using 2016 data. In November EF released their new report using data gathered from 2017 and the news wasn’t good: Japan dropped in the index yet again, 2 points down from 35 to 37 in a year, more than 10 points since 2013. The 2018 index hasn’t been released yet, but I’m guessing we won’t see any improvements. This downward trend is alarming. We should be expecting a flattening or upward trend in the run up to the Olympics, but we are not yet seeing that. This mystery should be a great business opportunity for the private sector, but for years there has been a plethora of language-learning opportunities from private language schools to study abroad programs, so clearly that’s not enough. What’s probably missing is something serious at the policy level, and it might be too late to change anything now before the Olympics.
The number of Japanese learners is growing
In my last post I predicted that by the end of the year we would have a total of one million test takers of the Japanese Language Proficiency Test, which is pretty much the only language test schools, employees, and people care about, so it’s a good proxy for gauging the interest in the language. Sure enough, in December the JLPT published a very concise message saying just that: the total number of applicants around the world has exceeded 1 million (July/December) for the first time. I had previously said that foreigners had given up on the English miracle and had decided to just learn the damn language. Again, some new data backs this up. The Robert Walters 2018 Salary Survey states again and again what a hot labor market it is right now. The demand for qualified labor way outstrips the current supply, and with the average salaries and the Japanese standard of living being what they are, it should be no surprise that people are buckling down to study Japanese to try and access the labor market.
Business needs to become more flexible
There is a great Cup Noodle commercial where a bunch of Japanese salarymen dressed as samurai try to meet the Commodore Perry-lookalike American businessman in open battle, charging with their limited English, only to be blown up by simple questions. Given the current language situation in Japan, it seems much more likely that the Japanese will be willing to accommodate a less-than-fluent Japanese speaking foreigner rather than insist on kamikaze-like attempts to use English. For this, the Japanese might have to give up on some ritualistic song-and-dance that is still present in everyday life, such as the extended use of keigo (formal language). I think we are already starting to see this with young local business and startups anyway, but it’s going to be necessary when interacting abroad if we want to have more effective communication. As for existing (large) companies, they might want to improve their culture and infrastructure to better welcome talent from overseas. Uniqlo and Rakuten are good examples of this. They can attract top Japanese-speaking workers from abroad because they offer an international-like work culture and solid logistical support for getting set up in Japan.
Looking ahead
Japan is becoming more international, but perhaps not in the way we expected. Still, the need for Japan to pick up its English skills is dire: one million people trying to get tested in Japanese every six months is still not a lot of people. There is no shortage of English language schools, study abroad programs and organizations, and most of those companies tend to thrive, suggesting that there is clearly a demand to meet the supply. Perhaps, more than demand we need to be talking about pressing need. The upcoming Rugby World Cup next year (hosted in 12 different cities around Japan), and the Tokyo Olympic and Paralympic Games the year after that, are solid deadlines, though it does feel like we are behind schedule. The World Cup might end up being a dry run for the Olympics, giving Japan only one year to get English-smart, and that would be reflected in the 2020 EPI report. More long term, we might expect the startup world to drive this need. The number of startups in Japan is increasing very quickly (privately-owned startups raised $2.5bn USD in 2017 compared to $600m in 2012) , though it’s still in early stages. Many of these startups will likely be made of members living all over the world, requiring global communication skills, and that starts with some basic command of English and the confidence to use it. In other words, given where we are on the timeline, these large international sporting events are likely (hopefully) going to act as the trigger for getting the English game on seriously once and for all, an effort which would be sustained long term by the business needs of new ventures.
